If you are looking to buy an apartment, this could be a really good time to do so in the NCR. According to real estate pundits, in the short term and mid term, prices could rapidly undergo a correction in the luxury and secondary, or re-sale, market of apartments.

However, not much change is expected in the affordable, end-user or primary markets of real estate in cities such as Noida and Greater Noida. The analysis has been released by Gurgaon-based real estate experts, Colliers International, India, in a flash report on the immediate impact of the demonetisation of 500-rupee and 1,000-rupee notes on the real estate market.

Amit Oberoi, national director, knowledge systems, Colliers International, told TOI that an immediate period of deflation was expected with significantly reduced liquidity in the market in the near term. "With money becoming dearer and those incurring financial losses likely to curb their spending, there will be a pause in the market," Oberoi said.

He said there would be little or no transactions in land, commercial strata sale and secondary sale of residential units at least for the next three months. "The primary reason for this lull in the market is that a majority of the players will get busy in figuring out how to account for the black money and cut their losses. At the same time, investors with white money will also adopt a wait-and-watch approach. Developers will be negatively impacted and can expect worsening of their cash flows," Oberoi said.

He said that most Grade A developers, however, had stopped the practice of taking cash in primary sales, thus they were less likely to be impacted in the short run.

The report says that in the short term to mid term, from three to 12 months, the real estate prices could fall further as interest rates could begin to drop. "We expect a fall in inflation rates in the next three to 12 months. The effective price of real estate to the buyers should thus come down, but not enough to trigger massive sales owing to uncertainty in the markets. We expect some properties to be available in the secondary market at a further discount because of the financial stress," Oberoi said.

Primary market sales will continue to be subdued as buyers will prefer secondary distressed property over primary markets. "We expect greater incentives rather than reduction in prices of residential units in the primary market. We are anticipating the usual resistance to lower prices," Oberoi added.

Surabhi Arora, senior associate director, research, Colliers, said that home prices were expected to come down in the luxury segment. "Paucity of money and the infusion of secondary market units at lower rates will bring down prices. The gap between primary and secondary markets is expected to thus increase. In the affordable segment, we expect both transaction volumes and prices to remain largely un-impacted," Arora said.

"It will also be a great time to invest in real estate from the perspective of an institutional investor as valuations will be attractive. We believe the long-term fundamentals of the Indian real estate market will remain strong. There will be a negative impact on investment sales market as retail investor money will largely diminish," she said.

Builders groups have reiterated that the demonetisation is going to prove healthy for the real estate market in the long term. "Most big-ticket builders now completely operate in white and via bank instruments, so the primary market is not affected by the demonetisation. There are short-term issues, but we are looking at long-term gains for the industry," Manoj Gaur, president, Credai NCR, said.

Source